Work through the list without notes. If you cannot do a statement, follow its link, then come back. Guide = study guide; Practice = practice questions.
Understanding
- I can explain what P(A | B) means, in context, as a probability within the group where B has happened. (Guide: “What “given” does to a probability”)
- I can pick out the condition from words such as “given”, “of the” and “among”. (Guide: “Common misconceptions”; Practice Q1)
- I can explain why P(A | B) and P(B | A) are usually different, using their denominators. (Guide: Worked example 1; Practice Q5, Q7)
- I can explain why the general multiplication rule works for any two events, not only independent ones. (Guide: “The general multiplication rule”; Practice Q2)
Calculation
- I can find a conditional probability from a two-way table by dividing by the condition’s total. (Guide: Worked example 1; Practice Q1, Q5)
- I can use P(A | B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B) with given probabilities. (Guide: “Notation and the formula”; Practice Q2)
- I can use P(A ∩ B) = P(A) · P(B | A), including for two draws without replacement. (Guide: “The general multiplication rule”; Practice Q3, Q6)
- I can build a tree diagram, multiply along paths and add paths to find the probability of an event. (Guide: Worked example 2; Practice Q4)
- I can reverse a conditional probability, finding P(B | A) from a tree. (Guide: Worked example 2; Practice Q4)
Reasoning
- I can interpret a conditional probability in context, naming the condition. (Practice Q4, Q7)
- I can spot a claim that swaps the condition and explain the error. (Practice Q7)
- I can explain why a conditional probability from observational data does not show cause and effect. (Guide: Worked example 1; Practice Q7)
All ticked? Move on to Topic 2.7, Independent Events and Unions of Events, or return to the course roadmap.