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AP® Statistics · Unit 4 · Topic 4.2

Constructing a Confidence Interval for a Mean or Mean Difference: Revision Notes (Statistics 4.2)

One-page recap of t-distributions, degrees of freedom, the one-sample t-interval for μ and for a matched-pairs μd, its three conditions, and the mistakes that cost marks.

Short on time? This page is the recap. For explanations and worked examples, use the full study guide.

Recap

  • σ is rarely known, so you estimate the standard deviation of x̄ with the standard error s/√n.
  • Standardising with s gives a t statistic, which follows a t-distribution with df = n − 1.
  • t-distributions: symmetric, bell-shaped, centred at 0, with heavier tails than the standard normal. As df grows they approach the standard normal.
  • Heavier tails mean t* > z*, so intervals are wider, especially for small n.
  • Matched pairs (two linked measurements per individual): subtract in a stated order and treat the differences as one sample.

Key relationships

Quantity Formula or rule
Point estimate x̄ (or x̄d)
Standard error SE = s/√n
Degrees of freedom df = n − 1 (n = number of differences for pairs)
Critical value t* for the central C% of t(df); invT(1 − (1 − C)/2, df)
Margin of error ME = t* × s/√n
Interval x̄ ± t* × s/√n

Conditions

Condition Check
Randomization Random sample or randomized experiment
10% n ≤ 10% of N, when sampling without replacement
Sample data Population approximately normal, or n ≥ 30, or (n < 30) data free from strong skewness and outliers. For pairs: check the differences

Mistakes to avoid

  1. Using z* when σ is unknown.
  2. df = n instead of n − 1.
  3. Two-sample methods for paired data. Pairs → differences → one sample.
  4. No order of subtraction in a μd definition.
  5. “n ≥ 30” written for a small sample. Look at the data and describe it.
  6. Checking each column of paired data instead of the differences.
  7. Parameter without context: name the mean, the variable, the units and the population.

Quick self-check

  1. What is t* for a 90% interval from a sample of 20? (df = 19, t ≈ 1.729)*
  2. A sample of 36 has s = 12 cm. What is the standard error? (12/√36 = 2 cm)
  3. Fifteen students each take a test before and after a course. What are the degrees of freedom for an interval for μd? (15 differences, so df = 14)

Next: practice questions.

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