Cambridge International AS & A Level Geography (9696): Topic 14 – Economic transition – Revision Notes

For full explanations and worked paragraphs, use the Economic transition study guide.

These notes condense Topic 14, Economic transition (sections 14.1 to 14.4), of the Cambridge International AS & A Level Geography (9696) syllabus for examination in 2025 and 2026. It is one of four Advanced Human Geography Options in Paper 4 (1 hour 30 minutes, 60 marks, 25% of the A Level). For each of your two options you answer a 10-mark structured question and one 20-mark essay from a choice of two.

Track your progress on the Cambridge A Level Geography hub and checklist, then test yourself with the practice questions. For how the four papers fit together, see the exam preparation guide. Export processing zones and manufacturing location belong to Production, location and change; trade, debt and aid belong to Global interdependence.

Key terms

Term	Definition
Primary sector	Extraction of raw materials: farming, fishing, forestry, mining
Secondary sector	Processing and manufacturing
Tertiary sector	Services to people and firms: retail, transport, health, education
Quaternary sector	Knowledge and information work: research and development, ICT, finance, consultancy
GNI per capita	Gross national income divided by population; often adjusted to purchasing power parity (PPP)
Human Development Index (HDI)	UNDP index of health (life expectancy), education (mean and expected years of schooling) and income (GNI per capita, PPP)
Gini coefficient	Measure of income distribution within a country, 0 = perfect equality, 1 = total inequality
Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI)	Household deprivation across 10 indicators of health, education and living standards
Foreign direct investment (FDI)	Investment by a firm in productive assets it controls in another country
Transnational corporation (TNC)	A firm that operates in more than one country
New international division of labour (NIDL)	Splitting of production so that routine assembly is done in lower-wage countries and control, research and design stay in high-income countries
Newly industrialised country (NIC)	A country that has moved rapidly to an economy led by manufacturing exports
Outsourcing	Contracting work out to another firm
Offshoring	Moving work to another country, in-house or contracted
Regional disparity	Difference in development between regions of one country
Core-periphery	A dominant, growing core region with a dependent, slower-growing periphery
Cumulative causation	Growth in a favoured region attracts further growth (multiplier effect)
Backwash effects	Flows that harm the periphery: out-migration of young workers, capital drain, competition from core firms
Spread effects	Flows that benefit the periphery: demand for its products, diffusion of investment and technology
Divergence / convergence	Regional gaps widening / narrowing over time

Models and theories at a glance

Who and when	What	Key idea	One evaluation point
Fisher, Clark (1940), Fourastié	Three-sector model	Employment shifts primary to secondary to tertiary as income rises	Some economies, such as India, grew services before a large factory sector
Fröbel, Heinrichs and Kreye (English edition 1980)	NIDL	Assembly moves to low-wage countries; control stays in HICs	Does not explain NICs moving up into design and high technology
Myrdal (1957)	Cumulative causation	Initial advantage plus multiplier; backwash and spread	Explains persistent gaps, but policy and transport change can tip the balance
Hirschman (1958)	Polarisation and trickle-down	Similar to backwash and spread	More optimistic that trickle-down wins in time
Friedmann (1966)	Core-periphery, four stages	Local centres, single core, sub-cores, integrated system	Stage 4 is not guaranteed; many countries stall at stage 2 or 3
Mahbub ul Haq and UNDP (1990)	Human Development Index	Development is more than income	Only three dimensions; national averages hide inequality
OPHI and UNDP (2010)	MPI	Poverty as overlapping deprivations	Results shift with chosen weights and cut-offs

Case study cards

TNC (14.2): Nike, Inc. Founded 1964 as Blue Ribbon Sports; renamed Nike in 1971. World headquarters near Beaverton, Oregon (about 10,500 staff in management, research, design and marketing). Regional headquarters in Hilversum (Netherlands) and Shanghai. Nearly all footwear and apparel made by independent contract manufacturers. In fiscal 2025: 97 footwear factories in 11 countries; 303 apparel factories in 34 countries; Vietnam, Indonesia and China made about 51%, 28% and 17% of Nike Brand footwear. Owned Air-Sole plant in Dong Nai Province, Vietnam. Revenue US$46.3 billion; about 77,800 employees. Use it for: hierarchy of functions, NIDL, subcontracting versus FDI, labour criticism in the 1990s.

NIC (14.2): South Korea. Export-oriented industrialisation under Park Chung-hee from the 1960s; five-year plans; from 1973 state investment in six strategic industries (including steel, shipbuilding, electronics and petrochemicals); chaebol such as Samsung, Hyundai and LG given cheap finance and tax breaks.

Offshoring (14.2): India IT and business services. English-speaking graduates, lower salaries, time-zone advantage, Software Technology Parks of India (1991). Bengaluru is the main hub; about 5.4 million direct jobs in 2023.

Regional policy (14.4): China Western Development. Proposed 1999; 12 provincial-level units. Before it, the west’s share of national output fell from about 20.9% (1990) to 17.1% (2000); Shanghai’s GDP per capita went from 7.3 to 12.9 times Guizhou’s. Projects: Qinghai-Tibet Railway (Golmud-Lhasa opened 2006), West-East Gas Pipeline (from 2002), West-East electricity transfer. Companion plans: Northeast (2003), Central China (2004). Outcome: growth in Chongqing and Chengdu, but Guizhou still had the fourth-lowest provincial GDP per capita in 2020. Criticism: Han in-migration and resource extraction in Tibet and Xinjiang.

Must-know distinctions

• Outsourcing vs offshoring. Outsourcing is about who does the work; offshoring is about where. A UK bank moving its own call centre to India is offshoring without outsourcing.
• FDI vs subcontracting. A TNC can shape production in a country without owning any factories there.
• Economic vs social measures. GNI per capita measures income; HDI and MPI include health and education.
• Average vs distribution. GNI per capita is an average; the Gini coefficient shows how evenly income is shared.
• Relative vs absolute gaps. A core-periphery income ratio can fall while the gap in dollars still grows.
• Backwash vs spread. Both happen at once. Divergence or convergence depends on which is stronger.
• Growth vs development. Output can rise while health, education and inequality barely change.

Mini essay plan

“Regional development policies cannot overcome the effects of cumulative causation.” With reference to one country you have studied, how far do you agree? [20]

1. Introduction. Define cumulative causation, backwash and spread. Name China’s Western Development strategy and state your line: policy can slow divergence but rarely reverses it.
2. Why the gap grew. Coastal Special Economic Zones from 1980 gave the east an initial advantage; the west’s share of output fell in the 1990s; migrants moved east (backwash).
3. Policy as counter-force. Infrastructure (Qinghai-Tibet Railway, West-East Gas Pipeline) aims to strengthen spread effects; growth in Chongqing and Chengdu supports this.
4. Limits. Guizhou still among the poorest provinces in 2020; better links can also let core firms and labour markets reach deeper into the periphery.
5. Viewpoints. Central government (integration, poverty reduction) versus critics in Tibet and Xinjiang (who benefits).
6. Conclusion. Agree in part: policy changed the rate of divergence and raised absolute incomes, but did not remove the core’s advantage. Say which measure you used.

Quick self-test

1. Give one example of a quaternary activity.
2. What three dimensions make up the HDI?
3. What does a Gini coefficient of 0 mean?
4. Who set out the NIDL, and in which decade was the English edition published?
5. Define FDI.
6. State one difference between outsourcing and offshoring.
7. Name the four first-generation “Asian Tiger” NICs.
8. Give one backwash effect.
9. Give one spread effect.
10. In which year was the China Western Development strategy proposed?
11. Which country made the largest share of Nike Brand footwear in fiscal 2025?
12. What happens in stage 2 of Friedmann’s model?

Answers

1. Research and development, ICT or consultancy (any one).
2. Health (life expectancy), education (mean and expected years of schooling) and standard of living (GNI per capita, PPP).
3. Perfect equality: everyone has the same income.
4. Fröbel, Heinrichs and Kreye; the 1980s (1980).
5. Investment by a firm in productive assets it controls in another country.
6. Outsourcing changes who does the work; offshoring changes the country where it is done.
7. Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.
8. Migration of young or skilled workers from periphery to core (or capital drain).
9. Core demand for the periphery’s food or raw materials (or diffusion of investment).
11. Vietnam (about 51%).
12. A single strong core grows by drawing labour and capital from the periphery.

Where marks are usually lost

• Defining the HDI with adult literacy, which it no longer uses.
• Treating GNI per capita as a measure of inequality within a country.
• Calling every TNC location “FDI” when it is a contract factory.
• Describing the NIDL without evaluating it against NICs that moved up the value chain.
• Writing about a TNC’s products and brand instead of its spatial organisation.
• Listing China’s projects with no judgement on whether disparities fell.
• Using “convergence” without saying whether the gap is measured as a ratio or in dollars.
• Leaving out viewpoints, which carry AO4 credit in management questions.

Official syllabus

Cambridge International AS & A Level Geography (9696) syllabus for examination in 2025 and 2026, Topic 14 Economic transition (14.1-14.4), assessed in Paper 4 Advanced Human Geography Options. Your teacher will confirm which two Paper 4 options your school teaches.